President Bush has decided to back European allies in their plan to
offer economic incentives to persuade Iran to abandon any effort to build
nuclear weapons, a sharp shift in policy for a government that had long refused
to bargain for Tehran's cooperation, senior administration officials said
yesterday.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice plans to announce the decision as
early as today, culminating an intense negotiation over recent weeks that
brought U.S. and European leaders together in their approach to Iran after a
long split. By agreeing to try incentives first, U.S. officials believe they
will later gain European support for taking the matter to the U.N. Security
Council if talks fail.
Rice hinted at the decision yesterday before traveling to Mexico. "I
think we're really coming to a common view of how to proceed," she said of her
discussions with the Europeans, who have taken the lead in negotiating with
Iran. "We're looking for ways to more actively support that diplomacy. But I
want to be very clear that this is really not an issue of what people should be
giving to Iran. This is an issue of . . . keeping the spotlight on Iran, which
ought to be living up to its international obligations."
Rice said Iran would have to commit to not using its civilian nuclear
power program as a cover for secret weapons development and would have to submit
to intensive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. She did not
discuss particular incentives, but those on the table include accelerating
membership for Iran in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and permitting Tehran
to purchase badly needed spare parts for its aging passenger jets.
Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick met with British, French
and German officials in Washington on Tuesday to work through the details,
according to a European diplomat. The two sides "share a common understanding of
where our red lines are . . . and when we'd go to the Security Council," the
diplomat said. Among the bigger hurdles has been coming up with terms that would
win support from the rest of the European Union.
The decision on incentives would put the United States in the position
of engaging Iran diplomatically after a quarter-century of hostility. It could
also go a long way toward reconciling the country with its traditional European
allies, particularly France and Germany, which broke with Washington over the
war in Iraq. Bush's recent trip to Europe, including meetings with French
President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, broke through
a long logjam over Iran.
But it was not at all clear that incentives would be enough to persuade
Iran, which denies trying to build nuclear weapons, to give anything up.
"It's a nose in the tent, but the concessions themselves were really
disparaged by Iranians that I spoke with as not meaningful," said Clifford
Kupchan of the Nixon Center, a think tank. "In reality, it would take years for
Iran to accede to the WTO, and airplane parts, while badly needed, just aren't
of the scale that would induce Iran to begin to consider trading their crown
jewels."
Still, Kupchan, who just returned from a two-week trip to Tehran during
which he met with senior Iranian officials, said U.S. involvement in the
negotiations is essential to Tehran. "It's clear that the Iranians view U.S.
participation in the E.U. talks as critically important," he said. "It's also
clear that they view these first steps as insufficient to engage them in
meaningful discussions on the nuclear issue."
Hadi Semati, a visiting public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson
International Center for Scholars and a University of Tehran political
scientist, agreed that Iranian leaders would dismiss the incentives as
inadequate.
"They want much more serious carrots, much more serious discussions of
security guarantees," he said. "I don't think it will impress the Iranians at
this stage, given the backdrop of rhetoric warfare by the administration over
the past couple of months." More than airplane parts, the Iranians are looking
for a broad change in U.S. strategy toward Tehran, he said. "They want a new
paradigm of rapprochement to Iran. That's the price of giving up any
program."
Bush's willingness to go along with incentives of any kind stems from a
desire to gather support for later punitive action, assuming the incentives do
not work, and to present a united front before the Security Council. Rice plans
to disclose the incentives decision in an interview with the Reuters news agency
today, according to officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Staff writer Glenn Kessler contributed to this
report.