050215 　「２０２０年の世界はどうなっているか」　米国NICの報告：　その１


「２０２０年の世界がどうなっているか」について米国の「国家情報評議会」(National Intelligence Council=NIC)から注目すべき報告書が発表されました。世界各国の発展がどのように進み、それが米国の政策にどんな影響を与えるかという視点で、もっぱら米国の大統領以下政策企画担当者向けにまとめられた報告書、ということですが、中々興味ある分析が盛り込まれています。いかにも米国らしい大胆な長期展望です。

全文は以下のサイトに載っていますが、結構長文の報告書(PDF 123ページ)なので、その目次をまずご覧になり、興味のある部分をお読みになるようにお奨めします。とくにエネルギー問題に関する部分(Growing Demands for Energy)は以下に抜粋しておきます。　また、アジア（中国、インド、日本など）に関する部分も中々面白いので、重要な部分だけ別電します。ご参考まで。 ---KK

報告書全文
 "Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence
Council's 2020 Project," December 2004.
http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf

またはHTML版
http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html

報告書概要
http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_2020_project.html

目次(Contents)
=============================================
- The Contradictions of Globalization
      An Expanding and Integrating Global Economy
      The Technology Revolution 
      Lingering Social Inequalities
      Fictional Scenario: Davos World 
------------------------------------------------------
- Rising Powers: The Changing Geopolitical Landscape
      Rising Asia
      Other Rising States?
      The “Aging” Powers
      Growing Demands for Energy
      US Unipolarity?  How Long Can It Last?
      Fictional Scenario: Pax Americana
------------------------------------------------------
- New Challenges to Governance
      Halting Progress on Democratization
      Identity Politics
      Fictional Scenario: A New Caliphate
------------------------------------------------------
- Pervasive Insecurity
      Transmuting International Terrorism
      Intensifying Internal Conflicts
      Rising Powers: Tinder for Conflict?
      The WMD Factor
      Fictional Scenario: Cycle of Fear

Graphics and Tables
======================================================
- China’s and India’s Per Capita GDPs Rising Against US
- When China’s and India’s GDPs Would Exceed Today’s Rich Countries
- Telescoping the Population of the World to 2020 48
- China’s Rise 50
- Projected Rise in Defense Spending, 2003-2025
- Fossil Fuels Will Continue to Dominate in 2020
- An Expanding European Union
- Number of Religious Adherents, 1900-2025
- Key Areas of Radical Islamic Activities Since 1992
- EU: Estimated and Projected Muslim Population, 1985-2025
- Global Trends in Internal Conflict, 1990-2003

エネルギー問題の展望（上記のRising Powersの章から抜粋）

Growing Demands for Energy
Growing demands for energy?especially by the rising powers?through 2020 will have substantial impacts on geopolitical relations.  The single most important factor affecting the demand for energy will be global economic growth, particularly that of China and India.  

• Despite the trend toward more efficient energy use, total energy consumed probably will rise by about 50 percent in the next two decades compared to a 34 percent expansion from 1980?2000, with an increasing share provided by petroleum.
  
  
• Renewable energy sources such as hydrogen, solar, and wind energy probably will account for only about 8 percent of the energy supply in 2020.  While Russia, China, and India all plan expansions of their nuclear power sector, nuclear power probably will decline globally in absolute terms in the next decade.

The International Energy Agency assesses that with substantial investment in new capacity, overall energy supplies will be sufficient to meet growing global demand.  Continued limited access of the international oil companies to major fields could restrain this investment, however, and many of the areas?the Caspian Sea,Venezuela, West Africa and South China Sea?that are being counted on to provide increased output involve substantial political or economic risk.  Traditional suppliers in the Middle East are also increasingly unstable.  Thus sharper demand-driven competition for resources, perhaps accompanied by a major disruption of oil supplies, is among the key uncertainties.