FOR THE PAST four years members of the Bush administration have cast
doubt on the scientific community's consensus on climate change. But even if
they don't like the science, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, one of their
closest allies in Iraq and elsewhere, has given the administration another, more
realpolitik, reason to rejoin the climate change debate: "If America wants the
rest of the world to be part of the agenda it has set, it must be part of their
agenda, too," the prime minister said this week.
Mr. Blair's speech came at an interesting moment, both for the
administration's energy and climate change policies and for the administration's
diplomatic agenda. In the next few weeks, the House will almost certainly vote
once again on last year's energy bill, a mishmash of subsidies and tax breaks
that finally proved too expensive even for a Republican Senate to stomach. After
a House vote, there may be an attempt to trim the cost of the bill and add
measures to make it acceptable to more senators -- including the growing number
of Republicans who have, sometimes behind the scenes, indicated an interest in
climate change legislation. Indeed, any new discussion of energy policy could
allow Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.) to seek
another vote on their climate change bill, which would establish a domestic "cap
and trade" system for controlling the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute
to global warming.
If domestic politics could prompt the president to look again at the
subject, international politics certainly should. Administration officials
assert that mending fences with Europe is a primary goal for this year; if so,
the relaunching of a climate change policy -- almost any climate change policy
-- would be widely interpreted as a sign of goodwill, as Mr. Blair made clear.
Beyond the problematic Kyoto Protocol, there are ways for the United States to
join the global discussion, not least by setting limits for domestic carbon
emissions.
Although environmentalists and the business lobby sometimes make it
sound as if no climate change compromise is feasible, several informal
coalitions in Washington suggest the opposite. The Pew Center on Global Climate
Change got a number of large energy companies and consumers -- including Shell,
Alcoa, DuPont and American Electric Power -- to help design the McCain-Lieberman
legislation. A number of security hawks have recently joined forces with
environmentalists to promote fuel efficiency as a means of reducing U.S.
dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Most substantively, the National Commission on
Energy Policy, a group that deliberately brought industry, environmental and
government experts together to hash out a compromise, recently published its
conclusions after two years of debate. Among other things, it proposed more
flexible means of promoting automobile fuel efficiency and suggested determining
in advance exactly how high the "price" for carbon emissions should be allowed
to go, thereby giving industry some way to predict the ultimate cost of a
cap-and-trade system.
They also point out that legislation limiting carbon
emissions would immediately create incentives for industry to invent new
fuel-efficient technologies, to build new nuclear power plants (nuclear power
produces no carbon) and to find cleaner ways to burn coal. Technologies to
reduce carbon emissions as well as fossil fuel consumption around the world are
within reach, in other words -- if only the United States government wants
them.