ＥＥＥ会議（日本の人口減少とエネルギー需要）...........................................................031230


日本の少子化が進み人口が減って行けば当然エネルギーや電力消費も減って行く
はずなのに現実には必ずしもそうなっていないのは何故か、という点が問題になって
おります。小生は見逃しましたが、この問題に関する最近の朝日新聞の特集記事が
英訳されて昨日(12/29)の同紙英文版サイトに載っております。
http://www.asahi.com/english/nation/TKY200312290071.html

この記事に関連して、日本の人口とエネルギーの相関関係が、米国のＥメール会議
でも盛んに問題となっております。どなたかこの問題に詳しい方は、薀蓄をご披露し
て
くだされば幸いです。朝日新聞の論調についての批判的コメントも歓迎します。
--KK

*************************************

POWER PARADOX/Japan Shrinks: Energy options
The Asahi Shimbun
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----

A smaller population should use fewer resources, easing the burden. But
that's not happening.

`The only natural thing to do is to decide whether nuclear power generation
is worth the costs.' POWER COMPANY WORKER

This is the third of a series examining how Japan's declining population
will affect society.

For a resource-poor nation that until recently projected growing demand for
power, the nuclear route seemed the only way to go. This may no longer be
the case. Hard hit by falling demand for electricity and rising costs of
operating nuclear power plants, power companies have come to view this form
of energy as too heavy a burden. In addition, recent scandals involving
power companies hiding faults with nuclear reactors have made the public
wary of nuclear power generation.

One alternative energy source that is quickly gaining steam is wind power.

In fiscal 1999, only 83,000 kilowatts were generated through wind power.
That surged to 463,000 kW by the end of fiscal 2002. Still, all the energy
produced by wind power is nowhere near what is produced by a single nuclear
power reactor.

Instability is the bugbear of wind power. Unreliable generation also leads
to instability in the voltage carried in the power lines.

High costs are involved in building power lines that can accommodate
wind-generated power. For instance, a special device is required to ensure
that voltage doesn't plummet when the windmill is not generating power-the
device costs nearly 500 million yen. Grids also need to be upgraded to allow
for an increase in wind-generated power, at a cost of about 500 billion yen.

Although the government plans to increase the percentage of recyclable
energy such as wind or hydraulic power in the total electricity supply,
there is no real answer as to who should pay for the wind power grids. This
is delaying the advance of wind power generation. The government's initial
goal was to increase the ratio of recyclable power to the primary energy
supply from 4.8 percent in fiscal 2000 to 7 percent by fiscal 2010. But this
cannot be attained unless the cost issue is resolved, experts say.

Europe is the forerunner in wind power generation. Development started after
the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident, whose fallouts had far-reaching
effects.

As of the end of 2002, Germany, which once prioritized nuclear power
generation, had wind power facilities capable of generating 10.9 million kW,
nearly 40 percent of the world's total. Since 1991, the German government
has obligated utility companies to purchase electricity generated by wind
power. Around three-fourths of wind-power giants are in Europe, including
Spain, which alone has 14 percent of the world's wind power generation
capacity.

The European Union has plans to raise the ratio of recyclable energy among
the primary energy supply to 12 percent by 2010.

Japan doesn't even have a policy to promote wind power, say experts.

Toshio Hori, chairman of Eurus Energy Holdings Corp., the country's biggest
wind power business, said: ``Many people think that they would buy energy
generated through eco-friendly means even if it is a little more costly. But
(Japan has) no policy to take advantage of such ideas.''

Meanwhile, the future of nuclear power is bleak because of accidents and
protests from activists and residents living near nuclear power plants.
There is also less justification for relying on nuclear power as demand for
power eases off.

The 10 utility companies estimate that power sales will rise 1.3 percent
yearly until fiscal 2012. But consumption has fallen below projections due
to the slow economy and energy-saving efforts.

Back in 1993, all the power companies, excluding the one in Okinawa,
projected 873.8 billion kWh in sales for fiscal 2002. The actual total was
only 841.5 billion kWh that year.

Still, Japan carries on building facilities based on projections made years
ago.

Symbolizing this is construction of a facility to extract plutonium from
spent nuclear fuel-the initial plan was to have it up and running by 2006.
It was to be a facility in a nuclear recycling plant in Rokkasho, Aomori
Prefecture, key to a plan to recycle spent nuclear waste into plutonium for
use as reactor fuel.

But the prototype Monju fast-breeder reactor was shut down following a
sodium leak in 1995. After that accident, the government turned to a
plutonium-thermal project that makes use of mixed oxide fuel (MOX) from
reprocessed plutonium for use in regular nuclear reactors.

Now the MOX project is also stalled, having met strong opposition from
people living near nuclear power plants. They were up in arms following a
string of scandals involving Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO), which was
found to have been hiding cracks and other troubles at its nuclear reactors.

The Federation of Electric Power Companies has estimated that about 19
trillion yen will be needed if the nation's nuclear power projects are to
continue under the government's nuclear fuel recycling program. A tug of war
to decide who should shoulder the huge costs has only just begun between the
state and power companies.

``The only natural thing to do is to decide whether nuclear power generation
is worth the costs,'' said a power company worker.

The country's declining population should provide an opportunity for
decreasing consumption of valuable natural resources and lessen the burden
on the environment. But that does not seem to have happened in Japan, based
on the example of nuclear power generation, with its continued high costs
and uncertain output. Meanwhile, the nation is slow to adopt wind power
generation because of the high initial costs involved, even though doing so
would lessen the burden on Japan in the future.

The World Wildlife Fund reported in 2002 that Japan's ecological
``footprint''-how much of the surface of the Earth is needed to produce the
food and material for a nation's population-was 4.77 hectares per person in
1999. This compares with 4.71 hectares for Germany.

In Japan, the ecological footprint was 4.68 hectares in 1996. That means
that the index is rising slightly, even as the country's population
continues to decline.

How well a nation uses its limited resources will determine whether it can
create a sustainable economy.(IHT/Asahi: December 29,2003) (12/29)