EEE会議（「再処理に経済性があるか？」：ハーバード大学の研究報告）..............................031225
先日（12/5)のEEE会議第８回講演・研究会で鈴木達治郎氏（電力中央研究所）から米
国のエネルギー・原子力政策について講演していただきましたが、今朝同氏から次の
ような最新情報の提供がありました。ご参考まで。
ハーバード大学グループの研究プロジェクト報告は、今夏公表されて問題となったMIT
グループの報告「原子力の将来」の続編のような感じですが（間違っているかもしれ
ませんが）、右報告書をお読みになった上で、これに対して批判的コメントのある方
は、是非積極的に開陳してください。
--KK
**************************************
今度はハーバード大のManaging
the
Atomプロジェクトが、『ワンス・スルーとリサ
イクルの経済性評価」と題する報告書を出しました。
結論は、再処理価格をキログラムあたり1000ドル（日本は2000-3000ドルといわれて
いる）で、リサイクルは直接処分より80％高くなる、というものです。リサイクルが
経済的になるにはウランが360ドル/kgにまで上昇しなくてはならず、当面そういうこ
とはありえないだろう、という結論です。HPでダウンロードが可能です。
http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/BCSIA_content/documents/Matt%20Bunn%20report%2012-23-03.pdf
私もまだ読んでいませんので、速報です。
鈴木 拝
ーーーーーーーーーーーー
atom@Harvard.Edu
さんのコメントを転送します:
Colleagues:
A very happy holiday and New Year to you
all from everyone at the Managing
the Atom Project!
We are pleased to
announce the release of a major new report from Managing
the Atom: The
Economics of Reprocessing vs. Direct Disposal of Spent
Nuclear Fuel, by
Matthew Bunn, Steve Fetter, John P. Holdren, and Bob van
der Zwaan. The
study examines the current and likely future costs of
various elements of the
nuclear fuel cycle, and concludes that at a
reprocessing price of $1000 per
kilogram of heavy metal in spent fuel, and
with the study's central estimates
of the other costs of the nuclear fuel
cycle, reprocessing and recycling
would increase the costs attributable to
spent fuel management by more than
80%, compared to the costs of direct
disposal (after taking appropriate
credit for the value or cost of the
plutonium and uranium recovered from
reprocessing). For these central
estimates, the uranium price would have to
increase to over $360 per
kilogram of uranium -- a level not likely to be
seen for many decades, if
then -- for reprocessing to be economically
competitive with direct
disposal. The study focuses only on the relative
economic costs of the
two approaches; the report points out that many other
factors are driving
decisions about reprocessing or disposing of spent fuel
around the world,
but that economics is not unimportant, particularly in a
nuclear industry
facing an increasingly competitive environment. While the
study's main
analysis focuses on reprocessing and recycling as it has
traditionally
been practiced, it does provide a brief discussion of future
concepts for
separations and transmutation of nuclear wastes, analyzing
recent official
studies that project that such approaches would be
significantly more
costly than traditional reprocessing and recycling. The
report also
includes an appendix assessing how much uranium might be
available
worldwide at various future prices. Full text of the report is
available
here:
http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/publication.cfm?program=CORE&ctype=book&item_id=348
Printed
copies of the report will be available soon by request from
atom@harvard.edu. (Some of you may have
received an earlier draft of this
report, dated July 2003; please replace
that draft with this final copy,
which incorporates changes in response to
comments from several
reviewers.)
In addition, we have made
substantial new updates to the Controlling Nuclear
Weapons and Materials
website we maintain for the Nuclear Threat Initiative,
including
substantially revised sections on removing nuclear material from
vulnerable
sites around the world, and on converting research reactors to
use fuels that
cannot be used as the core of a nuclear bomb. (A
comprehensive update on
legislative action related to these topics will be
coming shortly.)
See:
http://www.nti.org/cnwm
Other new
publications from Managing the Atom include:
Walsh, James.
"Nonproliferation, Persuasion, and Peace." The Philadelphia
Inquirer (12
December 2003).
http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/news/opeds/2003/walsh_atom_pi_121203.htm
Bunn,
Matthew. Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: A Progress Update. Washington,
D.C.:
Nuclear Threat Initiative and the
Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard
University, 22 October 2003.
http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/BCSIA_content/documents/Preventing_Nuclear_Terrorism_Progress_UpdateB.pdf
(This
paper was prepared to support the Nuclear Threat Initiative's "Safer
World"
campaign, in which Managing the Atom has been playing a significant
part.
For more on the campaign, go to http://www.saferworld.org.)
Bunn,
Matthew and Anthony Wier. "Faster Pace Needed on Uranium Removal."
Boston
Globe (23 September 2003).
http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/publication.cfm?program=STPP&ctype=article&item_id=616&gma=27
Park,
John. "China Holds the Key to Unlocking the North Korean Crisis."
Globe and
Mail (8 August 2003).
http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/publication.cfm?program=STPP&ctype=article&item_id=607&gma=27
Park,
John. "A Chinese Roadmap For Korea." Asian Wall Street Journal (30
June
2003).
http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/publication.cfm?program=STPP&ctype=article&item_id=601&gma=27
Papers
from the annual meeting of the Institute for Nuclear Materials
Management,
July 2003:
Bunn, Matthew, and Anthony Wier. "Controlling Nuclear Warheads
and
Materials: an Update."
http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/publication.cfm?program=STPP&ctype=paper&item_id=399&gma=27
Kovchegin,
Dmitry. "Approaches to Design Basis Threat in Russia in the
Context of
Significant Increase of Terrorist Activity."
http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/publication.cfm?program=STPP&ctype=paper&item_id=398&gma=27
Zhang,
Hui. "Evaluating China's MPC&A System."
http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/publication.cfm?program=STPP&ctype=paper&item_id=401&gma=27
Zhang,
Hui. "Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: Reducing the Danger of Highly
Enriched
Uranium."
http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/publication.cfm?program=STPP&ctype=paper&item_id=400&gma=27
Please
feel free to distribute this e-mail to anyone who might be
interested in its
contents. Anyone who wants to be added to or removed
from this e-mail
distribution list should drop a line to atom@harvard.edu.
We welcome comments and
suggestions, which can be sent to the same
address.
We hope you all
have a pleasant holiday.
Sincerely,
Matthew Bunn
Senior
Research Associate
Managing the Atom Project
79 John F. Kennedy
Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
atom@harvard.edu
www.managingtheatom.org
--------
Tatsujiro
Suzuki
Senior Research Scientist
Socio-economic Research Center
Central
Research Institute of Electric Power Industry
1-6-1, Ohtemachi, Chiyoda-ku,
Tokyo
Tel: +81-3-3201-6601, Fax:
+81-3-3287-2805
email:tatsu@criepi.denken.or.jp
(from here the information
is in Japanese)
鈴木達治郎
電力中央研究所、経済社会研究所 上席研究員
千代田区大手町１−６−１