EEE会議（温暖化の前に石油は枯渇する？）................................................................2003.10.2


化石燃料によるCO2で地球温暖化が進み、極地の氷が溶け、地表が灼熱地獄化して、
遂に人類が地球上では住めなくなる日が来る、という終末シナリオが懸念されていま
すが、実は、そのシナリオが実現するよりもっと前に、石油と天然ガスは枯渇してし
まうだろう。石油生産は２０１０年をピークに減少し始め、天然ガスも直ぐ後に続
く。そうなれば後は専ら石炭に頼らざるを得ないが石炭を燃やせばそれだけCO2が増
え、温暖化はさらに加速するだろうーーという恐ろしいIPCC研究報告が、今週ス
ウェーデンの名門ウプサラ大学で発表されたようです。詳細は最新号のNew
Scientistをご覧下さい。　（どなたか全訳して、解説、分析してくださいませんか
？）
--KK
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'Too little' oil for global warming

October 3, 2003
New Scientist Print Edition.

Oil and gas will run out too fast for doomsday global warming scenarios to
materialise, according to a controversial analysis presented this week at
the University of Uppsala in Sweden. The authors warn that all the fuel will
be burnt before there is enough carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to realise
predictions of melting ice caps and searing temperatures.

Defending their predictions, scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change say they considered a range of estimates of oil and gas
reserves, and point out that coal-burning could easily make up the
shortfall. But all agree that burning coal would be even worse for the
planet.

The IPCC's predictions of global meltdown provided the impetus for the 1997
Kyoto Protocol, an agreement obliging signatory nations to cut CO2
emissions. The IPCC considered a range of future scenarios, from profligate
burning of fossil-fuels to a fast transition towards greener energy sources.


 Energy discrepancy

But geologists Anders Sivertsson, Kjell Aleklett and Colin Campbell of
Uppsala University say there is not enough oil and gas left for even the
most conservative of the 40 IPCC scenarios to come to pass (see graphic).


Billions of barrels

Although estimates of oil and gas reserves vary widely, the researchers are
part of a growing group of experts who believe that oil supplies will peak
as soon as 2010, and gas soon after (New Scientist print edition, 2 August
2003).

Their analysis suggests that oil and gas reserves combined amount to the
equivalent of about 3500 billion barrels of oil - considerably less than the
5000 billion barrels estimated in the most optimistic model envisaged by the
IPCC.

The worst-case scenario sees 18,000 billion barrels of oil and gas being
burnt - five times the amount the researchers believe is left. "That's
completely unrealistic," says Aleklett. Even the average forecast of about
8000 billion barrels is more than twice the Swedish estimate of the world's
remaining reserves.

Nebojsa Nakicenovic, an energy economist at the University of Vienna,
Austria who headed the 80-strong IPCC team that produced the forecasts, says
the panel's work still stands. He says they factored in a much broader and
internationally accepted range of oil and gas estimates than the
"conservative" Swedes.

Even if oil and gas run out, "there's a huge amount of coal underground that
could be exploited", he says. Aleklett agrees that burning coal could make
the IPCC scenarios come true, but points out that such a switch would be
disastrous.

Coal is dirtier than oil or gas and produces more CO2 for each unit of
energy, as well as releasing large amounts of particulates. He says the
latest analysis is a "shot across the bows" for policy makers.



Andy Coghlan