ＥＥＥ会議（北朝鮮の再処理施設の運転停止の原因は？）..............................................2003.9.15


先週末来、米国のマスコミ報道で、北朝鮮のヨンビョン（寧辺）にある再処理施設が
運転停止状態にあるようだとの情報が流れています。その原因としては、本日の
New York Timesによれば、（１）技術的な問題が生じた、（２）外交上の配慮から
意図的に運転を止めている、（３）どこか別の場所へ再処理施設を移した、等が
考えられるとしています。この件に関する共同通信の最新報道をお知らせします。
ご参考まで。
--KK
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◎北朝鮮の実験炉に支障か
　　    衛星画像分析、蒸気消える

　二月末に再稼働が確認された北朝鮮平安北道寧辺の実験用黒鉛減速炉（電気出力
五千キロワット）で、六月初めに冷却塔からの蒸気が途絶え、運転に支障が生じてい
る可能性があることが米民間シンクタンクの十三日までの衛星画像分析から分かっ
た。
　米国が最近、寧辺にある核燃料棒再処理施設の放射化学研究所に熱を供給する
ボイラー室の稼働停止を確認、六カ国協議継続に向け北朝鮮が挑発行動を抑えて
いるとの分析が出ているが、技術的トラブルに直面しているのではないかとの見
方も浮上している。
　画像は米デジタルグローブ社の商業衛星が撮影。米科学国際安全保障研究所
（ＩＳＩＳ）が分析したところ、実験用黒鉛炉では三月五日と十三日に冷却塔か
ら立ち上っていた蒸気が六月三日には消えていた。
　ＩＳＩＳのコリー・ヒンダースタイン上級研究員は、技術的問題で原子炉が停
止されたか、冷却塔自体にトラブルが生じ補修作業のため低出力で運転されて
いる可能性を指摘した。
　北朝鮮が昨年末に建設再開を示唆した五万キロワット級黒鉛減速炉では六月の
時点でトラックや重機などが見当たらないなど目立った変化がなく、同研究員は
「建設が再開されたとは見ていない」との判断を示した。
　一方、核廃棄物の関連施設があったとされ、北朝鮮が一九九二年に国際原子力
機関（ＩＡＥＡ）の査察を受ける前に土砂で覆い隠した疑惑が持たれた場所では、
進入路が新設、拡幅された跡が見つかった。（共同通信　栗田裕康）

　
ＰＳ：
この件に関する写真はＩＳＩＳのサイトに出ています。
（http://www.isis-online.org/#highlights）

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（以下はnew York Timesの関連記事）

Shutdown of Nuclear Complex Deepens North Korean Mystery
By DOUGLAS JEHL

WASHINGTON, Sept. 12
American intelligence agencies are puzzling over
evidence that North Korea has halted operations at its nuclear complex in
Yongbyon, according to senior United States officials.

The Yongbyon site is the only one in North Korea known to produce plutonium
that can be used in nuclear weapons. The American officials said there was a
debate among intelligence officials about whether the shutdown, which some
described as fairly recent, reflects a technical problem, a goodwill gesture
by the North, or a shift to another site.

The uncertainty underscores the lack of information about North Korea's
nuclear weapons program. Much of the intelligence is based on monitoring
krypton gas emissions, a byproduct of nuclear reprocessing.

North Korean restarted the reactor at Yongbyon in February. The reprocessing
work, to turn spent nuclear fuel rods into plutonium, is believed to have
begun in the late spring or summer, United States officials said. The
apparent shutdown at Yongbyon was first reported on Thursday in The Los
Angeles Times.

American spy satellites and their sensors can detect in general whether
activity is under way at a plant like the one in Yongbyon, and the
indications that work has halted at the site were apparently based on
satellite intelligence. But judgments about the pace and extent of nuclear
reprocessing require additional information. Without access to North Korean
airspace or to the facilities, the United States is believed to rely
primarily on the krypton gas sensors, which are placed on aircraft.

It is not clear whether North Korea could have reprocessed enough spent fuel
this year to make a nuclear weapon. The United States government has
estimated that North Korea already has one or two weapons, and has said that
reprocessing efforts at Yongbyon could produce enough plutonium to make one
nuclear weapon a month. But American officials have described the effort at
Yongbyon as small in scale.

Officials from North Korea and the United States, along with representatives
from China, South Korea, Japan and Russia, met in Beijing last month to
discuss North Korea's weapons program. They are to meet again this fall. One
theory about the halt in activity is that North Korea wanted to signal its
willingness to stop work on its weapons program in return for sufficient
inducements.

But the other main theories are seen as having less hopeful implications.
The idea that the North Koreans might have run into technical difficulties
was described by one American official as the most likely explanation, in
part because the plant had been shut down between 1994 and the beginning of
this year, adding to the likelihood that sensitive equipment would
malfunction.

And the idea that North Korea might have moved its efforts to a plant that
has not been detected by the United States has been given recent credence.
American officials said this summer that krypton gas emissions had been
detected at levels higher than could be easily explained by work at Yongbyon
alone.